The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) Icarus Committee is developing a decision-making tool called the flight operations risk assessment system (FORAS), which will assist aviation managers to determine the relative risk of an accident or incident during a flight operation.

FORAS uses advanced mathematical-modeling techniques to examine risk contributors — such as weather conditions, flight crew human factors and airport conditions — and to generate a relative measurement of risk exposure for a flight operation. The result is a number; the higher the number, the higher the relative risk for the flight operation.

The system also can recommend interventions to reduce risk exposure. Changes to the risk measurement that result from new information entered by the user allow the user to assess how corporate actions and decisions affect the exposure of flight operations to the risk. For example, a decision regarding a new procedure or piece of equipment can be evaluated, and its effect on risk can be measured.

FORAS initially will provide guidance for evaluating the risks of controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) and turbulence-related injuries. CFIT, the leading cause of aviation fatalities, occurs when an airworthy aircraft under the control of the flight crew is flown unintentionally into terrain, obstacles or water, usually with no prior awareness by the crew.

The FORAS methods for evaluating the risks of CFIT and turbulence-related injuries are being tested against data from airline flight operations. The capability to evaluate other risks will follow.

The FSF Icarus Committee believes that FORAS — in addition to enabling real-time risk evaluations for particular flights and monitoring of trends in exposure to particular risks — eventually will enable the analysis and management of factors that are common to more than one risk.

Development of FORAS is funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ames Research Center. Participants in development of the system are Airbus Industrie, AlliedSignal Aerospace, British Airways, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, United Airlines, the U.S. Air Force Safety Center, the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School and the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.

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